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Latest Developments on China’s Post-COVID Reopening

China has recently released travel data for the Dragon Boat Festival.

The figures highlight interesting developments following the reopening of China, evident from the latest data during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 22-24). According to a report by Caixin, more people engaged in tourism activities compared to the same period in the pre-pandemic year of 2019, although their spending was lower.

Data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism revealed the following trends: a total of 106 million domestic tourist trips were recorded, showing a 32.3 percent year-on-year increase and a 12.8 percent rise compared to 2019. However, despite a 44.5 percent year-on-year growth in tourism revenue, totaling RMB 37.3 billion (US$5.15 billion), it fell short by 5.1 percent compared to 2019 figures.

Regarding overall travel during the Dragon Boat Festival, the Ministry of Transport reported the following numbers: rail, road, water, and air journeys witnessed an 89.1 percent year-on-year increase but remained 22.8 percent lower than the levels seen in 2019.

During the Dragon Boat Festival, China is expected to witness around 100 million tourist trips.

During this traditional Festival, China's consumption has thrived and exceeded pre-pandemic levels, making it the most vibrant holiday for spending in the past five years. It is expected that over 100 million tourist trips will be made during this year's holiday, generating approximately RMB 37 billion (US$5.15 billion) in tourism revenue.

Data from the China Railway reveals that on June 22, 2023, a total of 16.2 million passenger trips are anticipated, with 10,868 trains in operation, marking an 11.8 percent increase compared to 2019. The "travel rush" during the Dragon Boat Festival is projected to result in 71 million passenger trips by rail from June 21 to June 24, averaging 14.20 million trips per day.

Traditional folk tourism, particularly in cities known for dragon boat racing like Foshan, has gained popularity among Chinese travelers during the festival. Short-distance travel has also become a trending option for many during the three-day holiday.

Online shopping platforms have witnessed a significant surge in tourism reservations for the festival, with a year-on-year increase of 600 percent. Outbound trips have increased twelvefold, with Southeast Asian countries being the preferred destinations. Experts anticipate that consumption will play a vital role in China's economic growth, with final consumption accounting for over 60 percent of economic growth.

Furthermore, the recently concluded June 18 online shopping festival saw a surge in summer travel booking deals. The domestic travel market in China experienced significant growth in bookings during this period. Fliggy, the online travel branch of Alibaba Group, reported a 160 percent year-on-year increase in travel product orders and double the number of consumers making purchases compared to last year. Experts predict a 169 percent surge in money spent on domestic travel compared to last year, reaching nearly 96 percent of the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

During the June 18 shopping spree, multiple retailers on the Fliggy platform achieved transaction values exceeding 100 million yuan. Sales revenues for nearly 80 percent of retailers increased by more than 50 percent compared to the previous year, while domestic travel package transactions were more than six times higher than last year's shopping festival. The number of travel agencies with transaction values exceeding 10 million yuan tripled compared to last year. High-end products such as luxury hotels, bed-and-breakfast stays, business-class airplane seat vouchers, and high-end car rentals were particularly sought after by consumers.

The latest COVID-19 data released by China's CDC reveals a remarkable decline in cases, with a decrease of over 90 percent from the peak.

The latest data released by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) provides insights into the state of COVID-19 cases in the country. From February to early April this year, the number of new cases experienced fluctuations but gradually rose in April before showing a slowdown in May. Despite a slight increase in visits to fever clinics, severe cases, and deaths in May, the overall number of cases has significantly decreased compared to the peak observed at the end of 2022.

During the period from May 1 to 31, a total of 2,777 new COVID-19 cases and 164 deaths were reported. The average age of the deceased individuals was 79.3 years, with over 90 percent of them having underlying health conditions. The majority of cases were attributed to the XBB strain and its sub-variants, which accounted for an increasing proportion, rising from 84.6 percent between May 1 and 7 to 92.4 percent from May 22 to 28.

The number of visits to fever clinics across mainland China peaked on December 23, 2022, at 2.867 million and has been consistently declining since then. After an increase between February 24 and April 6, the number of visits reached a plateau and started decreasing again over a two-week period. By April 27, the number of visits had dropped to 221,000, representing a significant decrease of 92.3 percent from the peak.

China's growth forecast has been raised by the World Bank to 5.6 percent.

According to the World Bank, China's economy is projected to grow by 5.6 percent this year. This forecast reflects an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to their previous prediction in January. In contrast to most economies, the bank has revised their growth projections due to concerns over global growth and high-interest rates. The World Bank's outlook for China's economy surpasses the International Monetary Fund's projection from April, which anticipated a growth rate of 5.2 percent amidst a challenging global economic recovery. The recently released Global Economic Prospects report by the World Bank highlights that China's economic activity rebounded in early 2023, driven by effective measures taken to combat COVID-19. This recovery has led to increased consumer spending, particularly in the domestic services sector.

China unveils its first-ever four-valent Covid vaccine.

Residents in Beijing and several other cities across China can now access the country's first Covid-19 vaccine, which targets four different strains of the virus. This move comes as China ramps up its vaccination efforts to address a surge in infections. Developed by Sinocelltech Group Ltd, a pharmaceutical company based in Beijing, the vaccine is called SCTV01E and is a recombinant protein vaccine. According to reports, multiple vaccination centers in Beijing are currently administering the SCTV01E vaccine. Local media has also stated that distribution of the vaccine has begun in other cities such as Hangzhou, Wenzhou, and Wenling, located in the Zhejiang province in eastern China.

According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), domestic passenger air travel has returned to pre-pandemic levels in April.

According to recent data from the CAAC, domestic passenger air travel in April 2023 has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. The industry transported a total of 50.275 million passengers during that month, marking a remarkable year-on-year increase of 537.9%. On domestic routes, the volume of passengers even surpassed 2019 levels by 3.4%. The efficiency of aircraft carriers has also seen improvement, with daily aircraft utilization reaching 8.2 hours, a notable increase of 6 hours compared to the previous year.

In addition, air cargo has shown recovery progress as well, reaching 90.6% of 2019 levels. During April, a total of 545,000 tons of cargo and mail were transported, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.5%.

The US Department of Transportation has raised the weekly flight limit for Chinese carriers, allowing them to operate up to 12 flights per week.

On May 3, 2023, the US Department of Transportation (USDOT) issued an order increasing the number of weekly round-trip flights operated by Chinese airlines between the US and China from eight to 12. This change aligns the flight limit with that of US carriers, which was also set at eight per week in August 2020. However, the additional flights authorized by the latest order do not expand the number of Chinese airlines permitted to operate on China-US routes. The current approved airlines include Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, and Xiamen Airlines, while American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines represent the US carriers on these routes.

Despite the increase, the volume of flights between China and the US remains significantly lower than the pre-pandemic levels. Cirium data from April 2023 indicates that non-stop flights between the two countries were still 94 percent below pre-pandemic figures. There are multiple factors contributing to the limited flight numbers, including slow recovery in passenger demand within the US, reduced business travel, and challenges related to pilot staffing. Consequently, the cost of flights between China and the US remains considerably higher than before the pandemic, discouraging travel between the two nations.

During the Labor Day holiday, the demand for travel in China has exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

Based on industry data, the demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year's Labor Day holiday in China is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels observed in 2019. This positive trend reflects a promising recovery in the domestic travel industry following the lifting of Beijing's "zero-Covid" restrictions. Qunar.com, one of China's largest online travel platforms, reported a 23 percent increase in domestic hotel bookings for the five-day holiday compared to the same period in 2019. Popular destinations in the Yangtze River Delta region, Chongqing municipality, Chengdu, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cluster have seen significant bookings. Similarly, Trip.com witnessed a surge in demand, with a 157 percent increase in package tour bookings to lower-tier cities such as Zibo in Shandong province, Wanning on Hainan Island, and Pingtan in Fujian province.

Starting from April 29, China will eliminate the PCR test requirements for inbound travelers.

According to the regular press briefing on April 25, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning announced that starting from April 29, travelers to China can undergo an antigen test instead of a PCR test within 48 hours prior to boarding. Furthermore, airlines will no longer be responsible for checking pre-boarding COVID-19 test certificates. These adjustments aim to enhance China's COVID-19 prevention and control measures and facilitate international travel.

Chinese cities have lifted the mandatory mask requirement on public transportation.

Recently, major cities in China, including Beijing and Guangzhou, have revised their regulations regarding the use of masks on public transportation. Following a clarification from the National Administration of Disease Prevention and Control on April 12, 2023, it was announced that wearing masks on public transportation is now recommended but no longer mandatory.